NBA Teams' Win Prediction Tier List For The 2022-23 Season

This list predicts how many games each NBA team will win in the 2022-23 season.

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The 2022-23 season is less than a month away from officially starting. That means that teams are going to start revving up with one goal in mind, and that is winning a championship. For some teams, that will be a far-fetched goal given the state of the team at the moment. In order to win a title, one has to make the playoffs. To make the playoffs, teams are required to win games, and for some of those teams that is just not going to happen that much.

Other teams have a sound roster, but even the average team can make the playoffs. Thanks to the play-in game, 20 teams have a shot of making the 16-team playoff. Two-thirds of the league will get a chance to play some form of basketball after the last regular season game. Which teams have the best shot to make that happen? We take a look at that right now with our wins tier list ranking teams from winning less than 20 games to the heavy hitters likely to win over 60 games.

These are the NBA 2023 teams' wins tier list.

Under 20 Wins Tier

San Antonio Spurs - 17-65

You have to be respectful when you are talking about a team that features the GOAT as the head coach in Gregg Popovich. If there is anyone that can make mountains out of molehills, it would be “Pop.” With that said, this team is really bad on paper. The team just traded away their best player Dejounte Murray in the offseason. With what is on the depth chart, the Spurs are going to be chasing one thing only this year and that is the 2023 No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

The Spurs could find themselves in an early hole, too. According to the methodology, a data program that calculates the strength of the schedule, the Spurs have the hardest schedule in the league. In the first 20 games of the season, the team must play the Timberwolves three times, Nuggets two times, and the 76ers, Bulls, Clippers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Raptors, and Warriors. It would not be shocking if the team started the year 3-17. After that, it will just keep spiraling downwards.

Oklahoma City Thunder - 18-64

The Thunder were going to be interesting on paper with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Chet Holmgren as the future. Then, the injury struck and now the team is likely going to be battling others for the No. 1 overall selection. Gilgeous-Alexander is going to miss the first month of the season. Holmgren is going to be out for the season. Giddey is going to be entering his second season with a bunch of young and unproven players. The Thunder are going to be near the bottom of the conference once again.

The Thunder have the second-hardest schedule in the league. That includes two times this season where the team has a stretch of five games in seven days. If you factor in the youth and the lack of talent, it’s easy to tell why the Thunder are going to lose a lot. The Thunder won 24 games last season but the team’s one prized upgrade (Holmgren) is not going to play. While other teams got better, the Thunder stood in the middle of the pack. If the injuries stay up, the lack of depth will force this rebuild back a step.

Houston Rockets - 19-63

The last member of this tier features the third-hardest schedule. Starting to see a trend here? While all three teams are growing their team through the draft, that process features a lot of losses to cash in on the draft capital in the higher rounds. The Rockets selected Jalen Green with the No. 2 overall pick in 2021. They selected Jabari Smith with the No. 3 overall pick in 2022. Kevin Porter Jr. is playing in a contract year and it appears that the team is okay with trying to snag one more lottery pick to make this core something worth watching in two to three years.

The Rockets won 20 games last season, which was the worst record in the conference. The team finished 9-32 on the road and 11-41 at home. Their home record was tied for the worst in the NBA, as was their road record. The team also traded away Christian Wood, so there is a downgrade. The team is going to try to find a trade partner for Eric Gordon as well. There’s a lot of data to support that the Rockets will be the worst team in the league once again.

21-30 Wins Tier

Indiana Pacers - 21-60

This team could easily be in the 20 or below tier. The team is entering the season with a full rebuild in mind. It will be shocking to see Buddy Hield and Myles Turner on the team after the trade deadline. Hield’s contract will be the only stoppage point for him, but there is no reason why Turner should be on the team given he has an expiring deal and could net a first-round pick. Once the team releases their pieces, combine that with the seventh-hardest schedule in the league, the Pacers are going to be losing some games.

The Pacers were 25-57 last season with an 11-41 mark in the Eastern Conference. That was the worst conference record among East teams. The East appears to have gotten better with the Knicks looking to rebound and the Wizards looking healthy. The Pacers were 9-32 on the road, which tied the Rockets for the worst away record in the league. A lack of talent and fans is going to make it hard to win games.

Detroit Pistons - 25-57

How many games is Jaden Ivey worth? The team’s No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 draft will be paired in the backcourt with All-Rookie First Team member Cade Cunningham this season. While former No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III playing power forward is intriguing, Bagley has been around long enough and proven nothing. The Pistons lack a true big man and that will be in their sights when they are picking in the top-5 picks of the 2023 NBA Draft.

The Pistons own the fifth-hardest schedule in the league. The team was 18-34 in the Eastern Conference. For similar reasons to the Pacers, it’s hard to see the team winning that many more games. As far as the split records, the Pistons owned a 10-31 record away, which tied the Magic for the second-worst in the league. The Pistons were not as great at home with a 13-28 record. If we had to answer the question above, the growth of the young players at Ivey could help the team win two more games.

Orlando Magic - 27-55

There were times last season when the Magic looked like a competitive team. The youngsters played hard but were just not grown like the rest of the rosters. Orlando won 22 games and finished with the worst record in the Eastern Conference. The second step in this team’s rebuild will be interesting to watch.

Something should be said about owning the No. 1 overall pick in Paolo Banchero. The Magic already had two lottery picks in Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner and still nearly tied the Pistons (23 wins) for a win count. Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz also missed significant time last year. That includes Suggs who played half of the season. With Wendall Carter Jr. taking a huge step last year, the Magic could play five to eight more games this season. With that said, the team will be tested as the Magic own the fourth-hardest schedule in the league.

Utah Jazz - 29-53

This completely hinges on what players stay with the team. Despite trading away Rudy Gobert, Royce O’Neale, and Donovan Mitchell, the team still has Mike Conley Jr., Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jordan Clarkson. We also cannot forget that Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen are veterans in this league. The Jazz shouldn’t own the worst record in the league, but if the team fires their pieces, it could get ugly soon.

There is one saving grace for the team, though. The Jazz owns the second-easiest schedule in all of the NBA. Let’s do some simple comparisons from last year. The Kings won 30 games last year with an average roster. With what the Jazz have right now, there is 30-game potential. Again, it all comes down to who gets dealt.

31-40 Wins Tier

Portland Trail Blazers - 30-52

The Trail Blazers won 27 games last year after Damian Lillard battled injuries and C. J. McCollum was traded. The team battled through quite a bit of adversity through Chauncey Billups’ first season as head coach. Assuming that Lillard is back and healthy, the team should be better, but how many games are worth Lillard alone? Even with a healthy Lillard, the team probably would have won seven more games. That still would be a season that saw the team out of the playoffs.

While Jerami Grant was a solid pickup, the core of Lillard, Anfernee Simons, and Jusuf Nurkic was already lackluster. The team lacks depth and has so many holes in its roster. Not to mention, the team lacks durability in the middle with Nurkic not playing more than 70 games since 2019. With the 10th hardest schedule in the league, the Trail Blazers are going to start living in purgatory.

Charlotte Hornets - 31-51

In what way did the Hornets get better? The team owns the 12th hardest schedule in the league, which would have been fine had Miles Bridges stuck around. What Bridges did off of the court was sick, but talking about his pure basketball talent, he averaged 20.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and shot 49.1% from the field. He also was on the floor a ton averaging 35.5 minutes per game. No offense to P.J. Washington, but Washington had a chance to prove his worth at the power forward spot before and didn’t put up those numbers.

The Hornets won 43 games last year, so losing 12 games due to Bridges could be steep. With that said, the Hornets didn’t make any major moves in the offseason to get better. The frontcourt has a massive hole now. Gordon Hayward can’t stay on the floor, playing in just 49 games last year and 44 games the year before. The Hornets are going to take a major step backward. LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier can carry this team offensively but expect this to be the league’s worst defensive team.

Sacramento Kings - 34-48

The Kings gave up a future star in Tyrese Haliburton to acquire an All-Star in Domantas Sabonis at the last deadline. The deal didn’t turn out to make the team any better. Instead, the Kings were 5-10 with Sabonis added to the fold. The team finished 30-52 and was the 12th seed in the West. Out of all of the teams that missed the top-10 spots, the Kings were the only team to win 20 games in the conference. Maybe a full season with Sabonis could help the team start on the right foot.

The Kings own the ninth hardest schedule in the league. With a new head coach in Mike Brown, a change could be on the horizon. Then you remember this is the same team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2006. Winning on the road was hard last year as the team was 14-27, but it’s not like they were any better at home at 16-25. Either way, the Spurs made the play-in game with 34 wins. That is something realistic for this roster.

New York Knicks - 35-47

The Knicks won 37 games last season and didn’t do much to retool their team this past season. Why would the team take a step in the opposite direction? There are a couple of factors to consider. We saw this happen with the Timberwolves. The team that has not normally had success has the success and then regressed the following season. The Knicks went 41-31 in his first season and then dipped to 37-45 last year.

With no true improvement on the roster, why would the Knicks get better? The team is going to regret not making a deal for Donovan Mitchell. With RJ Barrett playing in a contract year, the future of the team could be in trouble. The Knicks own the sixth-hardest schedule too. The team didn’t win big games last season, so we ask for a third time. Why would the team be better?

Los Angeles Lakers - 36-46

Winners make adjustments, and losers make the same mistakes. The Lakers won 33 games last season with the group headlined by LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and Anthony Davis. There are just too many concerns that go into this season to believe this is a title contender. James is going to be 38 years old this season. We saw what the wear and tear did to him last year. He scored over 30 points per game, but what did that mean in regards to the win column?

The Lakers have a saving grace with their strength of schedule. The team’s SOS ranks 15th easiest in the league. That will come in handy for when James or Davis find themselves on the injury reserve list again. The team’s addition of Dennis Schroder could be very helpful, as the addition of Patrick Beverley. Then again, look at the lack of depth in the frontcourt. Davis and Thomas Bryant missed significant time last year. All it takes is more injury.

New Orleans Pelicans - 39-43

At some point, people need to start asking questions. Is Zion Williamson a max player? That answer doesn’t matter all that much, given that the Pelicans opened up the bank to extend Williamson to a massive deal. While that is nice and everything, Williamson has played one full season and that was a modified year. He missed all of last season. There were questions about his loyalty to the team. Most importantly, the team has never made the playoffs with Williamson leading the way.

The Pelicans made the playoffs last year thanks to the play-in game. That had nothing to do with Williamson’s contributions. At one point, they pushed the No. 1 seeded Suns to a 2-2 tie in the series before losing in the first round. There is talent on this roster, but taking the next step hinges on if Williamson is the superstar they believe he is.

41-50 Wins Tier

Chicago Bulls - 42-42

The Bulls won 46 games last year and were ranked the No. 1 team in the East at one point during the season. After the All-Star break, the team played some of the most average basketball in the league. When Lonzo Ball went down with an injury, the team’s stellar play fell apart. It forced a lot on Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan offensively, while fitting Nikola Vucevic into the scheme looked forced.

Heading into the season, Ball is going to miss the start. LaVine has questions about his knee that recently received surgery. It’s hard to ask DeRozan to repeat what he did last season. The talent on the roster is good enough to not have a losing record. The team heavily relied on the United Center fans last year. Chicago won 27 games, which was tied for the third-best home record in the East. They are going to need the faithful once again to get this team to remain competitive in a conference that will be better.

Toronto Raptors - 43-39

The Raptors are just outside the top-10 for SOS with the 11th easiest schedule in the league. The team won 48 games last season, which came as a surprise for many. With the fifth-best record in the East, the team proved they can hang with some of the best. What was more impressive was their identical 24-17 record on the road and away.

The Raptors are going to lose a few more games for the pure fact that other teams in the conference got better this offseason, and they did not. The team can rely on defensive toughness and Nick Nurse might be that good of a head coach to help the team win a few extra games. However, the Cavaliers, Wizards, and Hawks all got better. Toronto always seems to surprise everyone. Maybe they will do it again.

Washington Wizards - 44-38

The Wizards fell to the 12th best record last year at 35-47. Remember when the team was the No. 1 team in the conference early on in the season? A lot of that had to do with Bradley Beal being healthy. Now that Beal is distraction-free and healthy, he should be back to the type of player that can give your team over 25.0 points per game. Kristaps Porzingis is due for a big season. With two All-Stars, the Wizards should be a sleeper in the East.

Don’t sleep on Monte Morris and Will Barton either. Those were two solid pickups, while Kyle Kuzma is a very underrated player in this league. The Wizards own the eighth hardest schedule in the league this season, which could pose a problem and slide them back down to a .500 record. Either way, let’s roll the dice on the duo of Beal and Porzingis, which has a massive upside.

Atlanta Hawks - 45-37

The Hawks were disappointing last year. After making the Conference Finals, the team was viewed as one that would make a push for a top seed last year. The Hawks decided to make a move that could help vault them back to the upper tier of the NBA. The addition of All-Star guard Dejounte Murray will make this team better. The backcourt of Young and Murray will be one tough offensive duo to stop.

Assuming that John Collins can't get back to being a 20-point scorer, that is a sound big three. Clint Capela is just one year removed from winning a rebounding title. He remains a strong board machine. There is also something to be said about D'Andre Hunter playing in a contract year. This starting lineup is solid across the board and leads to wins in the mid-40s.

Cleveland Cavaliers - 47-35

There is a lot to like when it comes to the Cavaliers. For starters, the Cavaliers were a top-defensive team last season. There is a true culture in Cleveland, and that is something that Donovan Mitchell is entering. Mitchell is an ultimate team player. He is going to be forced into buying into what the team already has and if that means Mitchell grows as a defensive player, the Cavaliers could be dangerous.

Evan Mobley should have won Rookie of the Year last year. He is going to have a huge sophomore year. Jarrett Allen is a solid rim protector, while Darius Garland is an All-Star. Mitchell is bringing 25.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.3 assists to the Cavaliers. This team got better. Last year, the team was 27-25 against East teams and that did not include Collin Sexton in the fold. With this addition, the Cavaliers should contend for a top-6 spot in the standings. Also, the Cavaliers have the fifth-easiest schedule in the league, so that also helps in a big way.

Dallas Mavericks - 48-34

In terms of schedule, the Mavericks are right in the middle with the 14th easiest schedule. We can factor too much into that but we can look at how some of the Western Conference teams should be better. Last year, the team won 52 games. The Timberwolves won 46 games and made some major additions to the team. The Clippers won 42 games and were significantly injured. The Pelicans and Lakers should be more competitive.

Assuming that the rest of the West brings a more talented team, it’s not crazy to think that the Mavericks slide four games down. It’s also completely fine to think this is ridiculous at the same time. Luka Doncic tore up the summer and should be a dark horse candidate for an MVP Award. If the Mavericks are out of this tier, it’s because Doncic had a heavy influence.

Minnesota Timberwolves - 50-32

Think about what the Timberwolves did this off-season. They made a major move that tore apart their future draft capital to acquire a three-time Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert. There might be concerns about how Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns can coexist, but given how Towns can shoot from outside, this could be a very tough tandem to stop in the front court. Even without Gobert and Kyle Anderson, the Timberwolves were 32-20 against the West.

The Timberwolves won 46 games last season so the rise to 50 could easily happen. We want to be a tad hesitant by stretching the win total too far given the questions surrounding Towns and Gobert on the court together. If this pairing can work, in addition to the potential All-Star rise of Anthony Edwards, this team could be a top-4 team in the West. It also helps to have the fourth-easiest schedule in the league.

51-54 Wins Tier

Memphis Grizzlies - 52-30

Even with Jaren Jackson Jr. missing the start of the season, the Grizzlies should still be feared. Ja Morant, last year’s Most Improved Player, is ready to take the league by storm. With the seventh-easiest schedule in the league, it might be enough to help wean out some wins until Jackson gets back. With Dillon Brooks, Desmond Bane, and Steven Adams in the fold, this team is still in great shape.

The Grizzlies were the No. 2 seed last year with 56 wins. That included a 36-16 record against the West, which tied the Mavericks for the second-best conference record in the league. The Grizzlies were also one of three teams in the West to win at least 30 games at home. This is a good team, but this team will be great when Jackson returns.

Denver Nuggets - 53-29

The Nuggets won 48 games last year and Michael Porter Jr. barely played, while Jamal Murray didn’t play a single minute. Imagine a scenario where either player plays significant minutes last year. The Nuggets might have risen from the six seed to somewhere in the top-3. With two-time MVP Nikola Jokic looking to become the first player since Larry Bird to win three straight MVP Awards, he is only going to benefit from having two better players alongside him.

According to the SOS, the Nuggets have the easiest schedule in the league. While having the MVP and the easiest schedule should vault this team up a tier, there are legitimate questions about the durability of Murray and Porter. Murray hasn’t played since tearing his ACL, while Porter has missed parts of two seasons. If these two players miss time again, the Mavericks could find themselves out of this tier.

Philadelphia 76ers - 54-28

This is where it gets to be fun. Last year, the Heat won the conference with 53 wins so anything more than this will put the team in the conversation for the top seed. If we look at the teams on paper, the 76ers are the fifth-best team in the conference based on these rankings. It wouldn’t be too far off from last year though as the 76ers were the four seed. Every year, we see this trio of Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and someone else and think that it is going to be great, only for them to come up short.

Embiid was the MVP runner-up last year. He won the scoring title and should be viewed as an MVP candidate again. At some point, he needs to take a team farther than the second round of the playoffs. That’s a conversation for another time, but it follows the same theme. Luckily enough, James Harden is in a similar situation. Both of these players need this partnership to work when it comes to legacy.

Los Angeles Clippers - 54-28

Despite missing Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for nearly all of the season, the Clippers owned a winning record. While a 42-40 record isn’t sexy, it’s still a winning record. Leonard and George are top-10 players in the league when healthy. The Clippers added Norman Powell and Robert Covington at the deadline. The team also added John Wall during the offseason.

On paper, this is a solid roster. The Clippers have the 10th easiest schedule in the league, but it will all come down to health. Three of the team’s top players feature two players in Wall and Leonard who didn’t play a single minute last year. Everyone appears healthy for now, but hiccups happen all year. The team easily has top-3 potential in the conference standings.

55-59 Wins Tier

Boston Celtics - 55-27

After making the NBA Finals, the Celtics have plenty of room to go up. The upgrade of Malcolm Brogdon is going to be huge. In whatever role they use, he is a former 50-40-90 Club member that plays solid defense. The Celtics led the league in defensive rating and should be a top defensive team once again. With Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Robert Williams III, this team could have three All-Defensive Team players.

While the suspension of Ime Udoka is problematic, the Celtics have a roster with loads of talent. The team owns the ninth-easiest schedule, so with a sound schedule and talent, the team should be okay. Assuming that the Celtics do not get off to a rough start like last year, it will keep the distractions down. In the end, the team has a top-5 talent in Jayson Tatum, an All-Star in Jaylen Brown, and the Defensive Player of the Year in Smart.

Miami Heat - 55-27

After leading the East in wins with 53, the Heat will look to run it back. This team has a 2020-21 Bucks feel. The Bucks led the league in wins during the 2019-20 season but then dropped to the three seed the following season. In these projections, that would be a similar drop for the Heat as there appear to be two better teams on paper.

The Heat nearly made the NBA Finals last year. They led the conference in wins. They return All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, as well as Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro. This team is going to be good. The Heat went 35-17 against Eastern Conference teams and owned the best record at home at 29-12. With that said, two teams could be better.

Brooklyn Nets - 58-24

Last year, the Nets were a disaster. The team won 44 games and had a winning record despite all of it. This year should be different. Kyrie Irving doesn't have to sit out any games unless he chooses to do it. Kevin Durant is going to have an extra chip on his shoulder after this off-season’s trade request debacle. Durant was already one of the favorites to win the MVP Award. When he was healthy, he looked the part.

Throw in Ben Simmons, who should flourish from playing alongside Durant and Irving. Think about how Andrew Wiggins rose to be an All-Star when playing alongside great players. The world wants to write off Simmons for his exit in Philly and him not playing last year. He appears to be healthy and don't forget that this is a player that owns a career line of 15.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.7 steals, He was the 2021 DPOY runner-up. Don’t write off the Nets just yet.

Phoenix Suns - 59-23

If we factor in how some of the West improved and that sometimes teams feature some form of regression, the Suns would still be a top-tier team in the conference. The Suns led the NBA with 64 wins last season. That included a league-best 32-9 record on the road and at home. That also includes a 39-13 record against Western Conference teams. There is only one team on paper that has the talent to run the table past the Suns.

With the eighth easiest schedule, the Suns have that part of the metrics going for them. The team also returned the core that won over 60 games last year with Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Deandre Ayton pegged as the same starting lineup. The only possible distraction that could loom is that the jury is not out on the team trading Ayton in 2023. Other than that, this is a team that made the NBA Finals in 2021 and then won 64 games last year. This will be another tough opponent to beat.

60+ Wins Tier

Milwaukee Bucks - 61-21

The Bucks have a great roster and a favorable schedule. Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be in the mix for an MVP Award this season. The team has all of the pieces to make a run for the No. 1 seed in the East. The Bucks have the sixth-easiest schedule on paper. Assuming that everyone can stay healthy, the team is going to try and make it back to the NBA Finals.

Last year, the Bucks were the No. 3 seed and tied the Celtics with 51 wins. It just feels like the Bucks are the team to lead the East this year. The Bucks won 60 games to lead the conference in 2018-19. Assuming that Antetokounmpo is back to MVP form, he should be the key factor in leading the team back to the top once again.

Golden State Warriors - 64-18

The Warriors get to start the season with Klay Thompson in the lineup. As we saw in the postseason, Thompson was the true missing piece. We can talk about Stephen Curry’s dominance, Draymond Green’s defense, Jordan Poole’s snub, and the All-Star Andrew Wiggins playing in a contract year. There’s also the return of James Wiseman, but the Warriors won 53 games with Thompson playing 32 regular season games. Now, the team gets him back going into the season healthy.

The Suns won 64 games last year to claim the top spot in the West by a mile. We will use the Suns as a barometer but we should mention this team could win even more. The Warriors won the No. 1 seed in 2018-19 with 57 wins. That was the last time Thompson began the season healthy. If the conference is competitive, maybe the team dips under 60 wins. However, the Warriors are the clear favorites to win the No. 1 seed even with the 17th-ranked easiest schedule.